Soprano Amalie Materna appearing as Brünnhilde in Wagner's Der Ring des Nibelungen at Bayreuth, c. 1876
7 November 2020
The phrases it’s not over until the fat lady sings is used as a warning against overconfidence, expressing the fact that situations can change and outcomes cannot be assured. It is another way of expressing don’t count your chickens before they’re hatched. But it is also a phrase that has a lot of variations in its history, and the fat lady doesn’t come on stage until very close to the end.
The phrase dates to the late nineteenth century, and the first variations use the metaphor of church music. The earliest form of it that I’m aware of is a reprint of a piece originally appearing in the 10 October 1872 edition of the Cincinnati, Ohio Volksblatt, a paper catering to the German-American community there. The phrase is used in reference to the presidential election of that year between Ulysses S. Grant and Horace Greeley. I cannot find a copy of the original Volksblatt piece, and I don’t know if it was printed in English or in German, but the Cincinnati Enquirer reprints it the next day in English:
As long as the organ is playing church is not out. With Indiana and New York Greeley can spare Ohio and Pennsylvania.
We see no reason whatever to despair of Greeley’s election.
The metaphor of church music, sometimes organ music, sometimes singing, continues in variations of the phrase up to the present. And many of the uses of the phrase are in reference to electoral politics, an endeavor where the results cannot be known for certain until the votes are all tabulated. (Scroll down to see a longer list of the variations that have been used over the years.)
But we also see it, of course, in sports, which like politics is subject to sudden shifts in fortune. This one appears in the 17 August 1898 edition of the Birmingham, Alabama Age-Herald in reference to the National League baseball pennant race of that year:
But Buck Ewing’s braves are made of fighting stuff and the admirers of the Bean Eaters should not for a moment lose sight of the fact that the Porkopolis representatives are still on earth. The old saying of “Church isn’t out till singing’s over,” is applicable to base ball as well as camp meetings.
While the church metaphor continues to be used in sporting contexts through to today, as sportswriters picked up the phrase, they often dropped the metaphor. Church became the game, and the music was often absent. Here’s an early example from the Richmond, Indiana Evening Item of 4 October 1916:
The bird who chirps “The game ain’t over until the last man is out,” makes us think of them great proverb, not from Ben Franklin, “Breakfast ain’t over until the egg is off the chin.”
The breakfast variant is a wonderful one, but I’ve been unable to find any earlier uses of it, and the reference to Ben Franklin is undoubtedly in jest—Franklin was famed for including such aphorisms in his Poor Richard’s Almanac, but he didn’t use this one. It appears again in later sports writing, but it’s probably not much older than 1916.
Journalist Arthur “Bugs” Baer seemed to have been fond of the phrase, as he used variants of it on several occasions. Here is one where he mixes metaphors of baseball and boxing in a jab at the pugnacious nature of Brooklyn Dodgers fans. From the Atlanta Constitution of 29 April 1920:
A Brooklyn baseball game ain’t over until the last fan is counted out.
And the sports metaphor wasn’t always confined to sporting contexts. Here’s one from 10 June 1924 using the phrase to express optimism about a decline in the local birthrate in Bayonne, New Jersey:
However, as soon as Jarvis got the sad news off his chest he was himself once more and as he waved good by he was heard to shout something about “just watch us next month, the game ain’t over until the last man is out.”
There are also variations that use metaphors other than church or sports, such as meetings, sessions of the legislature, or fights. Here’s an early one about the flower business from the Fort Worth, Texas publication Southern Florist of 3 March 1922:
We decided that we would play more and work harder than we ever did in our lives before. While the first month and a half has not been so bright—with the money tight and collections slow—we have got a good ten and a half months good running yet. And besides, the meeting ain’t over until the shouting begins. And I doubt very much if we have sense enough to know when we are licked.
And of course, there is it ain’t over until it’s over. This variation on the phrase is often attributed to baseball great Yogi Berra, who was famed for uttering such tautological and oxymoronic profundities. But whether or not he ever uttered this exact wording is somewhat in doubt. Lots of people refer to Berra having said it long after the fact, but there are no recorded quotations of him doing so at the time. As Berra himself noted in Sports Illustrated of 17 March 1986, “I really didn’t say everything I said.”
But the New York Times of 30 June 1974 did report him saying something similar:
The last team to bring a National League pennant to New York was also managed by Berra. He is not yet ready to admit that this year’s Mets can’t repeat. “You’re not out of it,” he insisted recently, “until you’re out of it.”
But it’s not over until it’s over predates this utterance of Berra’s. The phrase first appears in Jesse Bier’s 1963 Trial at Bannock:
“You know how I'd do it. Pin a medal on him! Send him home—home: for the ladies. But it's yours now. You do it.”
“All right. You've made the case already anyhow.”
“I'm hurting, Ira, but don't tell me that. It ain't over until it is over! Link did all right.” He moistened his lips. “And Phil will hit hard, all over the place. I'd head him off.
And finally, we get to the opera and the fat lady. The metaphor here is of a large, Wagnerian soprano singing the final aria of a performance, but this metaphor doesn’t appear until relatively recently.
The first variation of the phrase that uses opera that I know of is from the Rockford Register-Star of 22 November 1962. Writer Jim Murray is referring to an actual opera, but in this column he uses an operatic performance he attended as a metaphor for a boxing match:
Everyone dies in the third act. There’s so many bodies sprawled around it looks like an air raid. There’s an old saying, an opera is never over till the last man is dead.
And the fat lady premieres in the 10 March 1976 edition of the Dallas Morning News:
Despite his obvious allegiance to the Red Raiders, Texas Tech sports information director Ralph Carpenter was the picture of professional objectivity when the Aggies rallied for a 72-72 tie late in the SWC tournament finals. “Hey, Ralph,” said Bill Morgan, “this Morgan, the league information director, is going to be a tight one after all.” “Right,” said Ralph, “The opera ain’t over until the fat lady sings.”
That same year, a pamphlet titled Southern Words and Sayings places the fat lady in a church, blending the two variants:
Church ain’t out ‘till the fat lady sings — It ain’t over yet.
The opera/fat lady variant cropped up a few times in the late 1970s until it was famously uttered by basketball coach Dick Motta of the Washington Bullets in their race to the National Basketball Association championship of 1978. As quoted in the Binghamton, New York Evening Press of 8 May 1978:
Only two teams in NBC [sic] history have come back from 3–1 deficits in playoff history—Los Angeles over Phoenix in 1970 and Boston over Philadelphia in 1968. But Motta isn’t ready to claim victory just yet.
“The opera ain’t over,” he said, “til the fat lady sings.”
Suddenly the fat lady was singing operatic arias all over the place. There is an explosion in the use of the phrase over the next few weeks, as the Bullets went on to the win the championship, cementing this variant of the phrase into the general vocabulary. So much so that only a month later this classified real estate ad could be run a month later in the Miami Herald of 10 June 1978 without explanation:
FAT LADY SINGS
In this screened pool shaded in orange grove, marble bath, barrel tile roof. 3,000 sq, ft. of living. 1 acre..$85,000 Call now.
And with that, the curtain closes.
Sources:
Ahern, Gene. “Ain’t Nature Wonderful!” Evening Item (Richmond, Indiana), 4 October 1916, 3. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.
Baer, Arthur “Bugs.” “Two and Three.” Atlanta Constitution, 29 April 1920, 14. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.
Bier, Jesse. Trial at Bannock. New York: Harcourt, Brace & World, 1963, 328. HathiTrust Digital Archive.
“Birth Rate Down; Jarvis Is Sad Again.” Jersey Journal (Jersey City, New Jersey), 10 June 1924. 10. NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers.
“Champs Take Lead for Pennant.” Age-Herald (Birmingham, Alabama), 17 August 1898, 8. NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers.
Classified Ad. Miami Herald, 10 June 1978, 12–D, NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers.
Cooper, F.A. “Here Is an Optimist” (letter). Southern Florist (Fort Worth, Texas), 12.23, 3 March 1922, 16. HathiTrust Digital Archive.
Murray, Jim. “New Form of Opera.” Rockford Register-Star (Illinois), 22 November 1962, D3. Cited by Garson O’Toole, Quote Investigator.
O’Toole, Garson. “It Ain’t Over ‘Til the Fat Lady Sings.” The Quote Investigator, 10 February 2015.
Oxford English Dictionary, third edition, December 2004, s.v. over, adv. and int.
Rapoport, Ron. “Elvin the Bullets’ Enforcer.” Evening Press (Binghamton, New York), 8 May 1978, 1-C. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.
Shapiro, Fred R. The Yale Book of Quotations. New Haven: Yale UP, 2006, 58.
Smith, Fabia Rue and Charles Rayford Smith. Southern Words and Sayings (1976). Jackson, Mississippi: Office Supply Company, 1993.
Smith, Red. “A ‘Character’ Named Berra. New York Times, 30 June 1974, 191. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.
“Spirit of the German Press: How the Volksblatt Views the Matter.” Cincinnati Enquirer (Ohio), 11 October 1872, 5. NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers. (Citing the Cincinnati Volksblatt of 10 October 1872.)
Photo credit: unknown photographer, c. 1876, public domain image.
Church music variations
“Lower Rate to Washington.” Fort Worth Gazette (Texas), 17 August 1894. 7. Newspapers.com.
The impression is still strong among railroad passenger agents that there will be further reductions in the rate to the Washington encampment of the Knights of Pythias.
“Church is never out till the people get through singing,” said one of them this morning, and all of them talk as if they understood the language of this parable.
“M’Kinley a Sure Winner.” New York Tribune, 2 May 1896, 1. NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers.
Questioning Chauncey Depew, supporter of Levi Morton, governor of New York, in the Republican nomination race, eventually won by William McKinley
“Do you think the Governor still has a chance?”
“While there is life there is hope. It doesn’t do to count on anything as a certainty until all is over. Church is never out until they stop singing. I admit that Major McKinley looks like the winner, but I am with Morton as long as he is to be considered as a candidate.”
“Hanna Back in the City.” New York Tribune, 20 August 1896, 1. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.
Quoting Richard C. Kerens of St. Louis, member of the Republican National Committee about the presidential race:
There is an old saying that “church is never out until they quit singing,” and every day shows that the fight is far from being over in Missouri.
“Baseball Briefs.” Patriot (Harrisburg, Pennsylvania), 31 May 1910, 6. NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers.
Some bleacher wag said that church is never out until the singin’s over and told the crowd to wait for the finish.
Miner, A.J. “Coal Dust.” Wilkes-Barre Times-Leader (Pennsylvania), 27 November 1911, 8. NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers.
“Church is not out until the Amen is said” and all such sayings apply to the Lehigh students who gathered up all the wood in the Bethlehems [sic] for a bonfire celebration and then Lafayette won 11 to nothing.
“Tariff Bill Nearly Ready for the Senate.” The Louisiana Planter and Sugar Manufacturer, 51.2, 12 July 1913, 46. HathiTrust Digital Archive. https://www.hathitrust.org/
While upon the face of the action of the caucus it would appear the administration has reason to feel hopeful of the outcome of the bill, some of the “war-horses” in the Senate are not quite so sanguine. There is an old saying that “church is not out ’till the singing’s done,” and with the narrow margin which the Democrats have in the Senate, it is believed that at least the wool and sugar schedules are still in the balance.
“Baltimore & Ohio Ry.—Connellsville, Pa., Lodge 1049.” The Railway Maintenance of Way Employes Journal, 36.12, December 1927, 40. HathiTrust Digital Archive.
If you are carrying an up-to-date union card you can present it to your foreman and say, “I am one of your best friends as far as my seniority will go,[”] but without this card about all you can do is to say, “Amen.” Now my good “nons,” church is not out until we have all gone home, so what do you say, let's all get right and stay until the usher comes to our pew?
“The Evolution of ‘Sockdolager.’” American Chess Bulletin, 25.1, January 1928, 31. HathiTrust Digital Archive.
Long years ago it was the habit of some friends at Pete's to bolster up their courage when playing a losing game by saying, “church is not out till they sing the doxology.” Then, perhaps a little later, a move would be made that swept away the last ray of hope and a bystander would remark, “There is the doxology.” So in time a masterly move came to be known as a ‘doxologer.” And again in time that was corrupted into “sockdolager.” This seems like going around Robin Hood's barn to coin a word, but I think it is the way it came about.
Head, Louis P. “Reed Hailed as Sole Hope to Stop Smith.” Dallas Morning News, 23 June 1928, 1. NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers.
It is a Democratic convention with all of the mercurial possibilities that from 1856 or thereabout down to now have hedged about the deliberations of the party. There is no program that can not be upset and the astute dopesters familiar with other conventions in other years keep constantly in mind the adage that “church is never out until the singing is over.”
“‘Old Jim’ Not Buried Yet, Ferguson Says.” Houston Chronicle, 1 August 1934, 16. NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers.
Texas Governor James E. Ferguson quoted:
I don’t want them to forget that they have written my obituary and buried me about six times before this and I want them to be correct about the proposition and not keep me or my friends in doubt. I expect to have a lot of fun yet and these politicians must not forget that church is never out until they sing.
Alexander, Jack. “A Reporter at Large.” New Yorker, 31 October 1936, 34. HathiTrust Digital Archive.
But remember, we’re not home until it is in the bag. Church isn’t out until the organ stops playing. So let’s keep going and make this a banner year with an overwhelming victory for the Fifteenth Assembly and the Democratic Party.
“The Crown of Man.” Dallas Morning News, 12 May 1938, 2. NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers.
Reprinted from the Hillsboro Mirror of uncertain date:
The ladies are usually a bit too previous. They blossomed out in spring raiment and then the weather turned cool, forcing them back into heavier clothing, perhaps into long-handled underwear. Men who are still clinging to their wool hats show their superior judgment. They know that church is never out till the singing’s done.
United Press. “Close Pennant Race Is Not Unusual.” Sacramento Bee, 22 September 1949, 20. NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers.
That old dugout bromide: “Church isn’t out ‘till the last hymn is sung,” got some statistical backing today from the Pacific Coast League baseball headquarters.
Associated Press. “Olympics.” Evening Star (Washington, DC), 22 February 1952, C-2. NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers.
Context: bobsledding
To reporters, however, Ostler refused to claim victory until the Americans had come down.
“So long as the organ is till playing church is not out,” he said in German.
“Coleman Loses Bid to Control Caucus.” Commercial Appeal (Memphis, Tennessee), 4 July 1956, 2. NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers.
On the major test, the anti-Coleman force defeated pro-administration forces 22 to 17 in electing Mayor John McLaurin of Brandon, permanent chairman, over Tally Riddell of Quitman.
Despite that apparent setback, Governor Coleman told newsmen, “Church is not out until the singing is over.”
Biltmores Beat Majors On Kraft-manship, 5–3. Globe and Mail (Toronto), 20 February 1958, 24. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.
Around the rink...Kraft’s second goal was a pearl of persistence....Being checked near the goalmouth, he lifted a backhander as he fell....Guelph coach Ed Bush insists the team can’t be counted out of the playoffs....“Church is never out until the choir stops singing,” he said.
Beddoes, Dick. “By Dick Beddoes.” Globe and Mail (Toronto), 17 December 1968, 30. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.
Pal Hal Ballard, very jubilant the other night after Leafs scored two goals with less than three minutes to play to beat St. Louis 3–2: “Church is never out until the choir stops singing.”
Beddoes, Dick. “By Dick Beddoes.” Globe and Mail (Toronto), 12 July 1969, 31. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.
Scribble in a hockey program from last Feb. 8, quoting Harold Ballard after Leafs scored a late goal to win: “Church is never out until the choir stops singing.”
Sports variations
“World Series Gossip.” Binghamton Press (New York), 10 October 1916, 12. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.
The bird chirping “The game ain’t over until the last man is out” reminds fans of the great proverb, “Breakfast ain’t over until the egg is off the chin.”
“Base Ball Dope.” Wilkes-Barre Times Leader (Pennsylvania), 12 October 1916, 12. NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers.
The bird chirping “The game ain’t over until the last man is out” reminds fans of the great proverb, “Breakfast ain’t over until the egg is off the chin.”
“The Saturday Evening Roast.” Green Bay Press-Gazette (Wisconsin), 10 February 1917, 8. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.
The old song, “Breakfast isn’t over ‘till the egg is off the chin,” has sort of lost its meaning.”
Baer, Arthur “Bugs.” “The Best Fighters.” Pittsburgh Press Sporting Edition (Pennsylvania), 9 December 1920, 32. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.
In barroom skirmishing there are no rules. The fight ain’t over until the black crepe is on the door bell.
Powell, Herbert Preston. “The Go-Getter.” The World’s Best Book of Minstrelsy. Philadelphia: Penn Publishing, 1926, 291. HathiTrust Digital Archive.
GALLEGHER. There, now, King, don’t lose your shirt. Never say die. Heads up, the game ain’t over until the last man is out.
Co-Co. Listen! (He reads.) You are warned that unless you step down from the throne of Kannibal Island you will be thrown off. The whole army is in revolt, and I am in absolute power. Only your Royal Guards remain to you, and we have stolen their feather dusters. We will attack in five minutes. Signed, MUSH, King-elect of the Kannibal Islands.
Baer, Arthur “Bugs.” “‘Bugs’ Baer Says.” Springfield Republican (Massachusetts), 7 October 1933, 6. NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers.
It proved that a game ain’t over until the last umpire takes his shin guards off.
Whittemore, J.O. “Winter Is Young Yet, So Suez Cannot Collect.” Boston Globe, 7 January 1934, C4. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.
Grindle yawned. “They’s a lotta things you show a in’trest in. Suez, but a hoss-race ain’t over until they come under th’ wire an’ a baseball game ain’t over until th’ last man is out, nor a foot-ball game until th’ final whistle blows, an’ here you be, th’ fust week in January, claimin’ th’ little wager we made with th’ winter only jest fairly set in.”
Strobridge, Stuart. “Minneapolis Park Tennis Stars Sweep to Victory in National Tournament.” Minneapolis Tribune, 15 August 1934, 14. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.
As the featherweight New Yorker puts it, “A tennis match ain’t over until the last ball is served.”
Norton, Pete. “The Morning After.” Tampa Morning Tribune (Florida), 17 September 1942, 15. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.
But to all the wise guys, just remember that the race ain’t over until they count Brooklyn out. A Dodgers fan from way back.
Ryan, Bob. “Celts Clinch Division Title, 137–111,” Boston Globe, 18 March 1972. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.
“It’s a tremendous thrill at this point,” said Heinie. [“]But from the experience of past years, I knowg [sic] that it’s only a momentary jubilation. It ain’t over until you win the last game of the playoffs.”
General variations
Mencken, H.L. The American Language, third edition. New York: Knopf, 1926, 402–03. HathiTrust Digital Archive.
Eighty-seven years ago them old-timers that you heard about in school signed the Declaration of Independence, and put the kibosh on the English king, George III. From that day to this, this has been a free country. An American citizen don't have to take offen his hat to nobody, excepting maybe God. He is the equal to anybody on this earth, high or low. If anybody steps on his toes, then they have got a fight on their hands, and it ain't over until the other fellow is licked.
“Such Is Life.” Enquirer and Evening News (Battle Creek, Michigan), 28 August 1935, 4. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.
It useta be,” the Tired Taxpayer recalled, “that the country breathed easier after congress was over. Mebby adjournment’s what we needed.”
“Useta be is right,” the Watchful Waiter snorted. “Only now’days congress ain’t over until the supreme court’s met and passed on the bills. We won’t know what some of them bills are worth until the judges get on the bench and start readin’ the riot act to the legislators.
Peebles, Dick. “Straight as an Arrow.” Houston Chronicle, 3 June 1965, Section 6, 1. NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers.
The touring pros have taken to playing a game called, “Top This” or the “Tournament Ain’t Over Until the Last Shot Has Been Fired.”
opera/fat lady variations
Wizig, Jerry. “DeBolt in No Hurry for Tour.” Houston Chronicle, 15 April 1976, 2-2. NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers.
Context: golf
Then Williams drew on an East Texas colloquialism to deliver his message that this AAII still is wide open, “Church isn’t out,” said Williams, “until the fat lady sings.”
Lauck, Dan. “Notre Dame Reshuffles the Pack.” Newsday, 3 January 1978, 88. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.
“That made it a real ballgame,” MacAfee said. “It was a two-touchdown lead, rather than three.” It sobered the Irish and put some pizzazz back into the Texans. A two-touchdown deficit is not insurmountable at all. And like most Texans would tell you, the Opry ain’t over ‘tll the fat lady sings.
Attner, Paul. “‘Fat Lady’ Sings for Bullets, 101–99.” Washington Post, 13 May 1978, D1. ProQuest Historical Newspapers.
Last week when the Bullets led in the series 3–1, Coach Dick Motta cautioned against undue optimism by saying, “The opera is not over until the fat lady sings.” She sang loud and clear last night for Washington.
Kale, Wilford. “Howell Is Still a Hit with Some.” Richmond Times-Dispatch (Virginia), 10 June 1978, A-3. NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers.
In the corner of the hall, hand-lettered on a sheet, was this message:
“The convention ain’t over until the fat lady sings for Rufus.” —a takeoff for candidate Rufus Phillips on the Washington Bullets’ professional basketball team’s new motto—“The opera ain’t over until the fat lady sings.”
Some delegates said they didn’t understand the sign. Others just pointed and laughed. It was that kind of night.
Lafourcade, Emile. “Chehardy ‘Strength’” Times-Picayune (New Orleans), 2 July 1978, 8–3. NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers.
“The opera isn’t over until the fat lady sings” is a refrain that has gained national popularity since the beginning of the National Basketball Association playoffs a few weeks ago.
The way Jefferson Parish politics has been going, a local rendition of the refrain might be: “The election ain’t assured until the fat man endorses.”
And anyone even remotely familiar with parish politics knows the “fat man” (and you say it with whispered reverence and never to his face) is former assessor Lawrence A. Chehardy.
Smith, Jack. “A Patient Fear He’s Suffered Softening of the Brain.” Morning Union (Springfield, Massachusetts), 5 July 1978, 19. NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers.
As Dr. Johnson himself said, if I’m not mistaken, “The opera ain’t over till the fat lady sings.”
Smardz, Zofia. “Republicans: Party Fears Aragona May Spoil Hogan’s Bid.” Washington Star (Washington, DC), 30 July 1978, D–3. NewsBank: America’s Historical Newspapers.
Candidate Martin Aragona on race for Prince George’s county executive
Sure, we would’ve rathered [sic] not to have a primary, but we’ve got one. And we know we’ve got to win the heat before we can win the race. So, to borrow a phrase from the Redskins—we’re in this until the fat lady sings.”